EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|NFL Week 3 winners, losers: Texans, 49ers dealt sizable setbacks

If there has been one theme thus far in the 2024 NFL season,EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center it has been the palpable presence of unpredictable upsets.

Week 3 was no exception. On the first day of fall, a pair of teams not many expect to compete in their divisions, the Denver Broncos and New York Giants, secured their first victories. Another squad that earned its first win of the season, the Baltimore Ravens, did so against a Dallas Cowboys team that has now lost its last three consecutive home games – going back to the playoffs – and appears to have serious flaws in its offensive and defensive run games.

Here are the winners and losers from Sunday’s Week 3 action:

WINNERS

Chiefs find a way, again

They were certainly aided by a clear defensive pass interference no-call and an abysmally slow-developing running play the Falcons called on the decisive fourth down, but Kansas City survived for a 22-17 win. The Chiefs are one of only four teams in the NFL at 3-0 – the Buffalo Bills have the chance to join them Monday night – and Kansas City isn’t showing any signs of slowing down.

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Patrick Mahomes has built an instant rapport with receiver Rashee Rice (12 receptions on 14 targets for 110 yards and one touchdown). Steve Spagnuolo’s defense continues to generate pressure and make plays deep in the clutch. And Kansas City still has the best coaching staff in the NFL. The rest of the league may not want to hear it, but it looks to be business as usual for the Chiefs, seeking to become the first team to ever win three consecutive Super Bowls.

Brian Flores is on an absolutely dominant run

Right after the Vikings defense dominated San Francisco last week, hot mics caught 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy telling Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores: “Your scheme is crazy.” The Houston Texans just found that out, too, in Sunday's 34-7 blowout.

Minnesota’s defense brings pressure from all over the field – and Flores does a tremendous job of disguising where it’s coming from using defenders in a two-point stance – disrupting the timing and rhythm of the quarterback’s processing. That barrage of pressure also gets in the quarterback’s head. Minnesota sacked C.J. Stroud four times and limited Houston to 4-of-14 (29%) on third-down conversions. The Vikings (3-0) are building their case for best defense in the NFL.

The case for Justin Fields as QB1

Justin Fields, frankly, likely won’t have the explosive passing numbers most coaches want from their quarterback. Through three games, however, he has shown more than enough to stay on as the Pittsburgh Steelers' starter, even when Russell Wilson is healthy enough to play.

Fields has been fairly efficient in three games, completing 73.3% of his throws for 518 yards. He has only thrown a couple of touchdowns against one interception, one that was tipped Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers, though he also added a rushing score in the 20-10 win. Those numbers are modest at best. But he is protecting the ball and generating enough offense while managing the game. Pittsburgh’s identity is its defense. It can win games behind that unit. Fields, for now, is the passer who best puts the Steelers (3-0) in position to win.

A pair of defenses spring unlikely upsets

The New York Giants (playing the Browns on the road) and Denver Broncos (playing the Buccaneers on the road) each came into Sunday as touchdown underdogs. Each won behind their respective, oppressive defenses.

Denver generated seven sacks and New York dropped Deshaun Watson eight times. Both defenses combined to hold their opponents to 7-of-25 (28%) on third-down conversions. Each forced two turnovers. Realistically, it’s difficult to project the Broncos and Giants as contenders this season; Denver (1-2) may sustain some growing pains with rookie Bo Nix at quarterback, and New York’s roster has holes at receiver, tight end and on the offensive line. But if both teams can develop their young players – the Giants (1-2) still have a key question to answer at quarterback with Daniel Jones – these defenses showed they can be foundational units that establish the respective identities of their franchises.

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LOSERS

Sloppy Texans may not be ready for elite status

Houston is a young team with plenty of dynamic weapons and plenty of promise. The Texans, after getting utterly dominated against the Vikings, may also have some growing up to do.

Houston (2-1) played undisciplined and unfocused football. The Texans had 11 enforced penalties for 88 yards. Midway through the second quarter, Houston faced a third-and-4 in Minnesota territory, already facing a 14-point hole. The Texans proceeded to commit three consecutive false starts, followed by an illegal formation – which was declined – leading to a punt. This was the second consecutive game Houston had with 10 or more penalties. The Texans' body language was passive and they lacked urgency – simply put, they looked like a team that was not ready.

The Cowboys simply cannot stop the run

It feels like the book is already out on the Cowboys: through three weeks, what speed and athleticism they have along the edge can be neutralized by what they lack in physicality. Said another way: getting to the quarterback won’t matter if opposing teams run straight at them. And that’s a problem for coach Mike McCarthy and the Cowboys (1-2).

In a 28-25 win, the Ravens rolled up 274 rushing yards (and three rushing scores) on Dallas one week after the Saints shredded the Cowboys for 190 rushing yards. Dallas now ranks dead last in the NFL in rushing defense (185.7 yards per game allowed) and rushing touchdowns allowed (eight). The Cowboys are also tied for dead last in rushing yards allowed per carry (5.4). The problem extends on offense, too, where Dallas’ own rushing attack lacks pop and explosion.

Miami’s roster construction

The Dolphins knew their window to win was now. They also knew starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was injury-prone. Presumably, they understood that keeping him upright would be paramount. Yet general manager Chris Grier failed to effectively upgrade the offensive line – a known weakness. Presumably, Grier and the Dolphins also understood that Tagovailoa would perhaps miss time, given his injury history.

Still, the team proceeded to trot out Skylar Thompson, a 2022 seventh-round draft pick, as its backup. This came even as Miami saw the Green Bay Packers trade for Malik Willis (who now has two wins as a fill-in starter) and the Steelers acquire Fields (who has three wins), both at a bargain. In a 24-3 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Thompson faced relentless pressure (behind that leaky O-line) and eventually sustained a chest injury. Now, Miami is 1-2 and facing at least three more games without Tagovailoa, who is on injured reserve. In a competitive AFC East, the season may already be slipping away.

Are the 49ers in trouble?

This was a total breakdown of a normally reliable offensive line, secondary, special teams, a lack of overall concentration and execution, and – suddenly – the 49ers are 1-2 and in last place in the NFC West. Granted, it’s incredibly early and this is a banged-up team with a recent track record of success.

But San Francisco was playing a Rams team that was facing comparable injury issues. In the final three minutes of the game, the 49ers missed a field goal, allowed a 50-yard bomb that set up a touchdown, had a key dropped pass that would’ve set up a potential game-winning field goal and allowed a 38-yard punt return inside the final minute that helped set up the game-winning field goal. The Niners are now under .500 for the first time since Purdy took over at quarterback.