PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:‘Of all the places': Deep red Butler, Pennsylvania, grapples with Trump assassination attempt

BUTLER,PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center Pa. (AP) — On the streets of Butler, Pennsylvania, in the wake of Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, the same four words have been spoken again and again: “Of all the places.”

Butler, home to some 13,000 people, and the county whose grand courthouse graces its square are named for a Revolutionary War general. American flags wave along its main drag alongside black-and-white photos of local heroes who died in other wars fought in the name of democracy. The first jeep was produced here in 1940 at the request of the U.S. Army.

It’s rural. It’s neighborly. And it’s Trump country.

“Of all the places to go after him and try something. We’re like, in Butler County?” said Cindy Michael, a 44-year-old health care worker. “Everybody’s just shocked. So shocked.”

Trump isn’t the first person to have held the office of president who has been the target of a shooting in the area. Long before he became the nation’s first president, George Washington “narrowly escaped death” when a Native American shot at him from less than 15 paces away. A state historical marker marks the spot on a trail about 14 miles (22 kilometers) southwest of Butler.

This county on the western edge of a presidential swing state is a Trump stronghold. He won Butler County — where turnout hovers around an impressive 80% — with about 66% of the vote in both 2016 and 2020. About 57% of Butler County’s 139,000 registered voters are Republicans, compared with about 29% who are Democrats and 14% something else.

RELATED COVERAGE In a media world that loves sharp lines, discussions of the Trump shooting follow a predictable path The man killed at a Trump rally died shielding his family. Neighbors share stories of 2 others hurt What is known and not known about the attempt on Trump’s life and its aftermath

Between 2016 and 2020, Trump gained nearly 10,000 more votes in Butler County, but that wasn’t enough for him to carry Pennsylvania. Gains by President Joe Biden in the state’s cities and suburbs — and he secured 9,000 more votes in Butler County than Hillary Clinton in 2016 — helped him displace Trump from the White House.

What to know about the 2024 Election

• Democracy: American democracy has overcome big stress tests since 2020. More challenges lie ahead in 2024.
• AP’s Role: The Associated Press is the most trusted source of information on election night, with a history of accuracy dating to 1848. Learn more.
• We want to hear from you: Did the attempted assassination on former president Donald Trump change your perspective on politics in America?
• Read the latest: Follow AP’s live coverage of this year’s election.
  

Still, Butler County’s support for Trump runs deep. Local attorney Patrick Casey said that may have been part of the problem.

“A friend said to me this morning, ‘I think everyone assumed that Donald Trump would be safe in Butler County,’ and I replied to that friend by reminding him that when Pope John Paul II was shot in an assassination attempt, it occurred in Vatican City,” Casey said. “Who would have thought there could have been a safer place than that?”

Indeed, the atmosphere was relaxed and neighborly at the Butler County fairgrounds on the day of the rally. Couples held hands, parents corralled their children, a woman accompanied her 75-year-old mother for a birthday treat. That was until 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks fired shots, including the one that Trump says struck his ear. A Secret Service sniper returned fire and killed Crooks. A bystander was shot and killed, and two more were injured.

Whether Butler can even approach a return to normal remains to be seen.

“We are deeply saddened by what has occurred here in our hometown,” Brenckle’s Farm and Greenhouse, which is located just outside the fairgrounds where the shooting happened, said in a Facebook post Monday. “Butler is a peaceful community and all who live here share similar qualities. The community is kind, generous and would give you the shirt off of their back if you needed it.”

While what happened that day weighs heavily on residents’ hearts, it did not appear to be swaying their votes. Some Trump supporters said the assassination attempt strengthened their resolve to vote for him while others said it didn’t impact their political feelings at all.

Victoria Rhodes, 25, a nurse who moved to Butler four months ago from Nashville, Tennessee, said she is still deciding how she will vote in November. She said what just happened in her new hometown isn’t a factor.

“This will be my first time voting in a presidential election,” she said. “I think I’m still trying to decide, because the political scene right now is kind of crazy.” While she is hopeful the assassination attempt will turn down the temperature on America’s political conversation, she said her experience has been that friends her age are able to speak about their political differences without anger.

Jamie Brackley, who manages the motorcycle shop in downtown Butler, called himself “a neither” in terms of declaring a political party. As for whether the attempt on Trump’s life will affect his politics, he said: “No. I’m a conspiracy theorist already, so it doesn’t affect me one way or another.”

Democrat Laneice Olesnevich, 66, has lived all her life in Butler. She called it “a good Christian town.”

Olesnevich said she remains undecided on her choice for president but that the assassination attempt wouldn’t affect her decision. Rather, she was waiting for more information on Trump’s running mate — he selected U.S. Sen. JD Vance, of Ohio, later on Monday — and on Biden’s health.

“I feel bad for those parents of that young man, because you know their life now has become a living hell, and I don’t think (what he did) will make any difference in my decision,” she said.

She added: “I pray for this country daily, because we definitely need something to change everybody’s anger.”

In a place where people know each other, it’s common to consider the impact of such a cataclysmic event on individual people, especially those with a direct connection to what happened. It’s one more reason why the shock will linger for years.

“The world’s a crazy place,” said Jodie Snider, of nearby Clarion, a retired police officer, Army officer and sharpshooter, who was visiting the Butler County Courthouse on Monday. “Of all places, Butler.”

___

Raby reported from Charleston, West Virginia. Associated Press data journalist Kavish Harjai contributed from Los Angeles.